KST (Know Sure Thing)
Momentum
Martin Pring's 'summed rate of change': four ROCs over different horizons, each smoothed and weighted, added together into one line. Designed to capture short- and long-term momentum in a single picture.
Construction & calculation
- Compute four ROCs: over 10, 15, 20 and 30 periods.
- Smooth each of those four with an SMA (10, 10, 10 and 15 periods respectively).
- Weight them by factors 1, 2, 3 and 4 — the longest horizon weighs the most — and add them up.
- The signal line is the SMA(9) of the KST.
KST = 1 x SMA(ROC10,10) + 2 x SMA(ROC15,10)
+ 3 x SMA(ROC20,10) + 4 x SMA(ROC30,15)
Signal = SMA(KST, 9)
Interpretation
- KST above the signal line = the composite momentum is improving: a buying climate.
- KST above zero = all horizons together point up: confirmed uptrend.
- The strongest signal is a crossing above the signal line while the KST is still below zero — early in a new upward move.
How the signal works in this scanner
Buy signal (green)The KST crosses above its signal line within the last 15 bars and is still above it. If there is no recent signal-line crossing, the scanner falls back on a crossing above the zero line.
Sell signal (red)The KST crosses below its signal line (or, failing that, below the zero line) and stays below it.
Watch-outs & pitfalls
- Because of the multiple smoothing, a crossing rarely falls exactly on the last bar. That is why the scanner looks within a window of 15 bars and confirms that the direction still holds.
- Slow but solid: the KST is meant for position trading over weeks to months, not for day trading.
- Requires at least 70 trading days.